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디지털예보자료와 Daily Weather Index (DWI) 모델을 적용한 한반도의 산불발생위험 예측

Prediction of Forest Fire Danger Rating over the Korean Peninsula with the Digital Forecast Data and Daily Weather Index (DWI) Model

Myoungsoo Won, Myungbo Lee, Wookyun Lee, Sukhee Yoon

Digital Forecast of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) represents 5 km gridded weather forecast over the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding oceanic regions in Korean territory. Digital Forecast provides 12 weather forecast elements such as three-hour interval temperature, sky condition, wind direction, wind speed, relative humidity, wave height, probability of precipitation, 12 hour accumulated rain and snow, as well as daily minimum and maximum temperatures. These forecast elements are updated every three-hour for the next 48 hours regularly. The objective of this study was to construct Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems on the Korean Peninsula (FFDRS_KORP) based on the daily weather index (DWI) and to improve the accuracy using the digital forecast data. We produced the thematic maps of temperature, humidity, and wind speed over the Korean Peninsula to analyze DWI. To calculate DWI of the Korean Peninsula it was applied forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression analysis, i.e. [1+exp{-(2.494+(0.004×Tmax) . (0.008×EF))}].1.The result of verification test among the real-time observatory data, digital forecast and RDAPS data showed that predicting values of the digital forecast advanced more than those of RDAPS data. The results of the comparison with the average forest fire danger rating index (sampled at 233 administrative districts) and those with the digital weather showed higher relative accuracy than those with the RDAPS data. The coefficient of determination of forest fire danger rating was shown as R2=0.854. There was a difference of 0.5 between the national mean fire danger rating index (70) with the application of the real-time observatory data and that with the digital forecast (70.5).