Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Distribution by the Climate Change Scenarios.

Sangchul Lee¹, Sungho Choi¹, Woo-Kyun Lee¹, Taejin Park¹,
Suhyun Oh² and Su-Na Kim¹

 

Abstract: This study was aiming at assessing the vulnerability of forest distribution by the A2 and B1 climate
change scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The vulnerability of forest distribution
was assessed using its sensitivity and adaptation to climate change with the help of the simulations of Koreanspecific forest distribution model, so-called the Thermal Analogy Group (TAG), and the Plant Functional Type
(PFT) defined in the HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups) model. As a result, the vulnerable
area occupied 30.78% and 2.81% of Korea in A2 and B1 scenario, respectively. When it comes to the administrative districts, Pusan in A2 and Daegu in B1 appeared the most vulnerable area. This study would be employed into preparation of adaptative measures for forest in future in terms of using climate change scenarios reflecting different future development conditions.

 

Key words : climate change scenario, forest distribution, sensitivity, adaptation, vulnerability