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Vulnerability Assessment for Forest Ecosystem to Climate Change Based on Spatio-temporal Information

Abstract : The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in South Korea using socio-environmental indicators and the results of two vegetation models named as Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Group(HyTAG), and MAPSS-Century 1(MC1). The changing frequency and direction of biome types estimated by HyTAG model was used for quantifying sensitivity and adaptive capacity of forest distribution. Similarly, the variation and changing tendency of net primary production and soil carbon storage estimated by MC1 model was used for quantifying sensitivity and adaptive capacity of forest function. As socio-environmental indicators, many statistical data such as financial autonomy rate and the number of forestry officer was prepared. All indicators were standardized, and then calculated using the vulnerability assessment equation. The period of vulnerability assessment was divided into the past(1971-2000) and the future(2021-2050). To understand what policy has a priority to climate change, distribution maps of each indicators was depicted and the vulnerability results were compared among administrative districts. Evident differences could be found in entire study area. These differences were mostly derived from regionalspecific adaptive capacity. The result and methodology of this study would be helpful for the
development of decision-making supporting system and policy making in forest management with espect to climate change.

Key Words : Vulnerability Assessment, Forest Ecosystem, Climate Change, Spatio-Temporal Information