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Spatio-temporal Change Prediction and Variability of Temperature and Precipitation

Spatio-temporal Change Prediction and Variability of Temperature and Precipitation

Mina Lee* ・Woo-Kyun Lee** ・Chul-Chul Song*** ・Jun-Hak Lee****
Hyun-Ah Choi***** ・Tae-Min Kim******

* 고려대학교 환경생태공학과 석사과정(
** 고려대학교 환경생태공학과 교수(
*** 고려대학교 환경GIS/RS센터(
**** 미국캘리포니아주립대학교 환경생태학과 박사과정(
***** 고려대학교 생명과학대학원 기후과학전공 석사과정(
****** 고려대학교 환경생태공학과 석사과정(

ABSTRACT : Internationally many models are developed and applied to predict the impact of the climate change, as occurring a lot of symptoms by climate change. Also, in Korea, according to increasing the application of the climate effect model in many research fields, it is required to study the method for preparing climate data and the characteristics of the climate. In this study IDSW (Inverse Distance Squared Weighting), one of the spatial statistic
methods, is applied to interpolate. This method estimates a point of interest by assigning more weight to closer points, which are limited to be select by 3 in 100 km radius. As a result, annual average temperature and precipitation had increased by 0.4℃ and 412 mm during 1977 to 2006. They are also predicted to increase by 3.96℃, 319 mm in the 2100 compared to 2007. High variability of temperature and precipitation for last 30 years shows in some part of the Gangwon-do and in the southern part of Korea. Besides in the study of the variable trend,
the variability of temperature and precipitation is inclined to increase in Gangwon-do and southern east part, respectively. However, during 2071 to 2100 variability of temperature is predicted to be high in midwest of Korea and variability of precipitation in the east. In the trend of variability, variability of temperature is apt to increase into west south, and variability of precipitation increase in midwest and a part of south.

Keywords : temperature, precipitation, IDSW, variability, trend