A Study on the Disaster Prevention of the Royal Tomb Eureung in the Mountain Cheonjang
-Estimation on Forest Fire Risk Considering Forest Type and Topography -

Won, Myoung-Soo, Lee, Woo-Kyun, Choi, Jong-Hee

 

Abstract
The purpooe of this study is to analyze the risk of the foresl fire, considering the topography and the forest, for
establishing disaster prevention measures of cultural heritage, Uireung, over in Cheonjang-moumain. To do that, we
estimate the occurrence and spread of the foresr fire over in Cheonjang-mountain through a forest fire probability model(logistic regression), using the space characteristic data(100m x 100m), The factor, occurrence of the forest fire, are diameter class, southeast, southwest, south, coniferous, deciduous, and mixed forest. We assume the probability of the fire fotest in each point as follow: [1 +exp { - ( - 4.8081 - (0.02453*diameter class)+(0.6608*southeast)+(0.507*southwest)+(0.7943* south)+(0.29498*coniferous forest)+(0.28897*deciduous forest)+(0. 17788*mixed forest))]^-1. To divide dangerous zone of the big forest fire, we make the basic materials for disaster prevention measures, through the map of coniferous forests, deciduous forests. and mixed forest. The damage of cultural heritage caused by a forest fire will be reduced through the effective preventive measures, by forecast a forest fire to using this study.
Key Words : Cultural Heritage. Forest Fire, Risk Estimation, Logistic Regression, Cheonjang-Mountain. Uireung