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Vulnerability Assessment of Maize and Wheat Production to Temperature Change - In Case of USA and China -

The appearance of abnormal weather caused by climate change have both direct and indirect
impact on the society. Especially, agriculture is brought up as a socially important interest having
direct impact of climate change in growth and harvest of crops. This study aims to perform vulnerability
assessment for the South Korea’s two main imported grains, maize and wheat. The production
vulnerability assessment of maize and wheat in USA and China to temperature variability,
which has a great impact in production, is performed. First, grain cultivation period which affects
productivity of main grain production country was selected based on the main cultivation period
from several references and previous studies. Then, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
AR5 greenhouse gas scenario RCP(representative concentration pathways)8.5 scenarios was used to
select the future climate that correspond to the cultivation period of maize and wheat for each
producing country. According to the result of production vulnerability analysis using adaptation (temperature
changing trend) and sensitivity(temperature variability), the productivity of wheat was higher
in USA, while productivity of maize was higher in China. In the future, the result showed that
productivity of all two grains will be favorable in USA. The result of production vulnerability assessment
through this study can later be used as a preparation data for the coming fluctuation in
grain price due to climate change.