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Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea Using MCI Model

Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea Using MCI Model
Sungho Choi, Woo-Kyun Lee, Hanbin Kwak, So-Ra Kim, Seongjin Yoo, Hyun-Ah Choi, Sunmin Park and Jong-Hwan Lim
ABSRACT: The objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using MAPSS-CENTURY (MC1) model, one of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Also, it was to suggest selected and concentrated adaptation strategies for local government on the basis of this assessment. For the MC1 simulation of past years (1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model (ECHO-G) provided the future climatic data under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario of IPCC) A1B scenarios. This study predicted the changes in vegetation distribution by climate change, and it analyzed the spatial and tempral variation of the Net Primary Production (NPP) and Soil Carbon Stoage(SCS) using the MC1 model simulations. The vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystem can be divided into two categories; 1) the vulnerability of vegetation distribution and 2) the vulnerability of forest ecosystem function, such as the NPP and SCS. In addition, the sensitivity and adaption capacity were evaluated for each category. As results of the vulnerability assessment, relatively vulnerable areas were situated in the western coastal part and south eastern inland of Korea. Based on the spatial variation in vulnerability, we could suggest that the central and local governments need to prepare concentrated adaptation strategies for climate change based on the vulnerability assessment.
Keywords: climate change, forest ecosystem, vulnerability, MC1 model, Dynamic Global Vegetation Model